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Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage Rates Match 2-Month Lows
Because mortgage rates are determined by the bond market, a boring market day typically translates to a boring mortgage rate day. But that's not entirely true today. While the level of movement is indeed very small, it only took a small movement to get the average 30yr fixed rate down to their lowest levels since the end of October. Next week should be another slow one for rates, but things should pick up progressively as 2026 gets underway.
Friday, December 26, 2025 8:00:00 PM UTC
Lowest Rates in Nearly a Month
It was a short day for the bond market that underlies mortgage rates, but a good one. A side effect of holiday weeks and early market closures is a bit of random volatility without any obvious justification. When volume and participation are low, bonds can move a bit more than they otherwise might. All that to say today's improvement was luck of the draw, but we won't object to the result. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell to the lowest level since November 25th. The caveat is that the range has been fairly narrow during that time. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
Wednesday, December 24, 2025 6:01:00 PM UTC
Mortgage Rates Ultimately Unchanged After Starting Higher
Mortgage rates have broadly been in a narrow holding pattern for the past 4 months and an even narrower range during December. Today will do nothing to change that with the average lender ending the day exactly where they left of yesterday. Earlier today, however, the average lender was offering slightly higher higher rates. The upward pressure came courtesy of the bond market's reaction to stronger GDP numbers for Q3. But that initial reaction proved to be a temporary overreaction, exacerbated by lighter trading participation associated with the holiday week. In general, lower participation greases the skids for volatility, essentially magnifying the impact of events that might not have much of an impact otherwise. The bond market is technically open tomorrow (and thus, lenders will publish mortgage rates), but it should be even more heavily affected by holiday trading vibes. Also, there isn't much in terms of important econ data to cause the kind of volatility seen today--no to mention the fact that today's volatility ultimately proved to be non-existent.
Tuesday, December 23, 2025 9:11:00 PM UTC
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady to Start Holiday-Shortened Week
Mortgage rates are tied to movement in the bond market and bonds were close enough to Friday's levels that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged today. This keeps the average lender in the lower portion of the narrow range seen over the past 4 months. If rates manage to move noticeably lower from here, they'll be challenging the lowest levels in more than 3 years. Meaningful momentum may be hard to come by over the next 2 weeks. During that time, the bond market will be fully closed for 2 days, partially closed on 2 days, and much lighter in volume and participation for the rest of the time. This can lead to random, small-scale volatility but it rarely results in lasting momentum. For that, we'll be waiting until the major econ data begins coming out in January--most notably the Jan 9th jobs report.
Monday, December 22, 2025 8:21:00 PM UTC
Mortgage Rates Just Off 2-Week Lows
It ended up being a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates despite scattered speculation about the impact of foreign monetary policy decisions. The average lender nudged just a hair higher, resulting in the 2nd lowest reading of the week. Apart from yesterday, the last day with lower rates was more than 2 weeks ago on December 4th. The coming week will be heavily affected by the realities of the holiday trading environment. There's no repeatable formula for this. We simply widen the range of potential rate movement that occurs for no apparent reason. Most of the time, rates simple drift aimlessly sideways, but on certain years, there are inexplicable jumps/dips. We won't have a solid sense of where the rate market wants to be until the important economic reports start coming out in January.
Friday, December 19, 2025 9:09:00 PM UTC
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