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Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage Rates Start Week at New 9 Month High, But Just Barely
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in more than 9 months at the end of last week. Now today, they've edged slightly higher yet again with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at 6.68% versus 6.65% on Friday. This wasn't necessarily destined to be the case today. In fact the day began with the average lender unchanged. But the underlying market remains highly attuned to breaking news on the Iran war. Earlier in the day, that news was helpful for rates as it spoke to the possibility of compromise on a peace deal. Subsequent headlines refuted the initial news, thus pushing the financial market back in the other direction (i.e. toward higher rates). The result was that the average lender recalled their initial rate offerings and re-released higher rates. Things were on track to be even worse this afternoon when Trump said he was cancelling a planned attack and that serious negotiations were taking place. This helped bonds recover some of the earlier losses, but not enough for lenders to make any friendly rate adjustments today.
Monday, May 18, 2026 7:34:00 PM UTC
Mortgage Rates Surge Toward 8-Month Highs
Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and the bond market hoped to see more evidence of shift toward peace during the 2-day Trump/Xi meeting in China. As soon as Trump got back on the plane to head home, bonds began tanking (i.e. jumping to higher yields). When bond yields spike, mortgage rates follow, and today is no exception. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 6.62% this morning, right in line with levels seen on March 26th and 27th and the highest since August 1st. If there's a silver lining, it's that mortgage rates aren't higher. Much of the credit goes to the ramp in purchases of mortgage-backed debt by Fannie and Freddie. The more mortgage debt they buy, the better it is for mortgage rates relative to benchmarks like U.S. Treasuries. For instance, Treasuries are now well above the levels seen in late March and in line with levels from the first half of 2025 when mortgage rates were 7% instead of 6.62%.
Friday, May 15, 2026 4:40:00 PM UTC
Mortgage Rates Move Moderately Lower
May continues to be a more volatile month than the bulk of April when it comes to day over day mortgage rate movement. While the average day has seen that volatility play out in favor of higher rates, today was thankfully the opposite. Yesterday's latest levels left the average lender at 6 week highs with a top tier 30yr fixed rate of 6.57. The underlying bond market was already beginning to recover yesterday afternoon. Combined with additional, modest bond market improvement overnight, today's 30yr fixed rate fell to 6.52% on average. The Iran war remains the primary source of volatility for markets. Some analysts expect more traction on a peace deal to come out of Trump's meeting with Xi (which will continue into tomorrow). This is far from a given, but if it happens, it would almost certainly put additional downward pressure on rates.
Thursday, May 14, 2026 7:20:00 PM UTC
Mortgage Rates Officially at 6 Week Highs
Mortgage rates rose somewhat sharply yesterday to match the highest level since March 27th. They're just a hair higher today, thus officially at 6-week highs. Whereas yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) didn't have an obviously negative impact on rates, today's Producer Price Index (PPI) did. Both are big inflation reports. CPI is typically much more likely to cause a reaction in rates, but PPI showed a much bigger surge in inflation this morning. Even then, the underlying bond market wasn't too much worse by the end of the day and the mortgage-specific bond market actually made a full recovery. But that recovery was too gradual and shallow for the average lender to adjust their rates today. That left our rate index 0.01% higher day over day at 6.57% for a top tier 30yr fixed. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
Wednesday, May 13, 2026 6:58:00 PM UTC
Mortgage Rates Match Highest Level Since March
When the Iran war was in its initial escalation phase, the initial surge in markets took the top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% for the average lender by March 27th. Rates moved more than 0.30% lower by mid April as peace prospect improved. The third phase of rate movement began in late April and has generally involved a jump back up toward 6.5% with the first 2 days of the present week accounting for a move from 6.42% to 6.56%. That matches the highest level seen since March 27th. Bonds yields (which underlie rates) have followed longer-term oil prices to their highest recent levels as Trump said the U.S. is not in a hurry to end the war. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
Tuesday, May 12, 2026 7:28:00 PM UTC
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