Despite some initial signs of volatility in financial markets over the weekend, the bond market managed to avoid losing much ground. Because bonds dictate mortgage rate movement, the average lender remained very close to Friday's latest levels.  MND's rate index (a measure of top-tier 30yr fixed rates) rose by 0.01% which is the smallest increment we measure. Since April 14th, the index has held inside a narrow range of 0.03% with the bottom of that range representing the lowest rate in over a month. Volatility is a bigger risk over the next 2 days as the 2 week Iran war ceasefire expires. The market is generally positioned for further de-escalation, but there's more room for improvement if the war officially ends and Hormuz fully reopens. Conversely, if there's unexpected escalation in the next 48 hours, rates could also move back up.

Today was a victory for mortgage rates, but not nearly as much of a victory as the underlying bond market would suggest. The good news is that the end result is the lowest average 30yr fixed rate in just over a month.  The other news isn't bad, per se, but it is a bit confusing.  As we often discuss, mortgage rates are based on bonds because mortgages "turn into" bonds in order to be traded on the secondary market. You don't need to understand that process in detail to accept that it's true.  Case in point, here's a chart* that overlays our average 30yr fixed rate and the most prevalent mortgage-backed security (a bond comprised of a pool of multiple mortgages). Zooming in on Friday, we see bonds breaking lower at a faster pace than mortgage rates. This is actually very normal behavior for mortgage rates--especially when they're falling into the lowest territory of the past few weeks. If the bond market gains are maintained next week, rates should increasingly be willing to close the gap. Conversely, if bonds bounce in the other direction, rates likely will as well, but they'll have some cushion and may not need to bounce as quickly. * in both of today's charts, the right axis shows mortgage-backed securities PRICES. In the bond market, price varies inversely with yield (i.e. higher prices = lower rates). As such, the right axis is inverted (higher values at the bottom) in order to highlight the correlation with rates on the left axis.  Otherwise, the chart would look like a Rorschach test and it would be impossible to detect these subtle changes. 

On average, today's top-tier 30 year fixed mortgage rates are exactly the same as yesterday's. Rates are driven by the bond market and bonds continue waiting for bigger developments in the Iran war. At the moment, the market is in a sort of limbo as time remains on the 2-week ceasefire. In the meantime, there's a multitude of lower consequence war-related headlines on any given day. These have caused a bit of back and forth volatility in bonds, but not enough directional movement to nudge rates very far in either direction since Tuesday.  

On Tuesday, the average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate hit the lowest level in exactly 4 weeks. If you're not interested in splitting hairs, today's rates are essentially the same. Although our official average is 0.01% higher, that's such a small change that many of today's rate quotes will look the same as yesterday's.  In the bigger picture, these rates are about halfway between the highs seen in late March and the lowest rates in more than 3 years seen at the end of February. The bond market (which dictates rates) remains focused on developments in the Iran war, but there's an ever-higher bar for relevant news. At this point the average war update is not having a noticeable impact. It will take a material change in the status of the war and a clear response in energy prices to catch the bond market's attention.

Mortgage rates had their best day of the month so far with the top tier 30yr fixed rate falling 0.08% for the average lender to the lowest levels in exactly 4 weeks. Today's improvement is a bit bigger than today's bond market movement would suggest. The discrepancy is due to timing. Bonds were improving fairly steadily since yesterday morning and the average lender didn't adjust yesterday's rates in response to the bond market improvement in the last few hours of the day. As such, that improvement was tacked on to today's. As for the drivers of the market movement, it's the same old story since the beginning of March. The Iran war is the primary source of motivation and oil prices are frequently the best correlated indicator for bond yields and interest rates. Around 10am this morning, oil dropped and bonds improved after a senior administration official said "a lot is happening today and tomorrow. We have all the ingredients of a deal, but it's not all there yet."