Mortgage rates began the day at the highest levels in a month. The move up versus Friday was only moderate, but Friday's levels were already fairly close to early Feb's highs. Oil prices continue putting upward pressure on rates, but with several caveats. It takes quite a big move in oil to motivate enough movement in the bond market to impact mortgage rates. With this morning's spike being the largest on record at the time, today certainly qualified. But over the course of the day, both oil and bonds reversed course, thus allowing the average lender to adjust rates back in line with Friday's latest levels. 

Before this morning's jobs report was released, mortgage rates were on track to end the week at their highest levels in several weeks. This was due to an ongoing mega-spike in oil prices spilling over to the bond market (higher oil = higher inflation implications, and bonds hate inflation). The jobs report saved the day, albeit in a morbid way. It was one of the weakest jobs reports in years with unemployment continuing to trend higher and the job count falling deeply into negative territory. The jobs market is the only thing as important to bonds as inflation, and job market weakness tends to push rates lower. Bonds recovered back to levels that were right in line with yesterday, thus allowing most mortgage lenders to adjust their rate offerings accordingly.

Mortgage rates bounced back up today as the underlying bond market continued the selling trend seen on 3 out of 4 days so far this week. In the overnight hours, bond yields (which generally correlate with mortgage rates) moved higher in concert with rising oil prices.  That said, it would be a mistake to assume this is the only correlation in town. Oil prices continued to rise sharply during domestic hours, but bond yields remained flat--possibly benefiting from safe-haven demand following heavy losses in stocks. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is still under its recent highs, but after today's jump, it's fairly close. This is a victory of sorts, considering 10yr Treasury yields are clearly above their recent highs.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Economic data is one of the few consistent sources of motivation for interest rates in the mortgage world and beyond. In general, stronger data tends to push rates higher and vice versa. But in today's case, that correlation didn't pan out. The first of today's two important economic reports was ADP Employment. It was just barely stronger than expected, so it's no surprise that rates didn't react. The second report (ISM Services) was quite a bit stronger, with the headline index hitting its best levels since 2022.  On a vast majority of other occasions, such a result would create some clear upward pressure for rates. We can only speculate as to the absence of a reaction this time. Perhaps it was the component that tracks inflation falling to the lowest level in nearly a year. Perhaps the market is more preoccupied with geopolitical considerations.  Regardless of the reasons, we're not upset with the outcome. Rates moved about halfway back down to their recent lows after spending a few days at 2 week highs to start the week.

After spending the entirety of last week calmy holding the lowest levels in more than 3 years, mortgage rates jumped sharply higher yesterday. That said, everything's relative. Even after that "sharp" increase, the average rate was still one of the lowest in years apart from last week. There was slightly more cause for concern this morning as the underlying bond market increasingly swooned.  When bonds lost ground, rates move higher.  But unlike yesterday, which involved pervasive gradual weakness throughout, today saw a meaningful recovery shortly after the market opened. Bonds ended up making it almost all the way back to 'unchanged,' thus allowing most lenders to reissue revised rates that were slightly lower than this morning. The average lender didn't make it quite back to yesterday's latest levels, but the market movement offered an important proof of concept. Specifically, we're not necessarily destined to see a runaway rate spike in the coming days. As always, there's an important caveat: we're not necessarily destined to see anything at all when it comes to the future of rate movement.  Depending on the outcome of economic data, rates could continue higher or recover back toward recent lows. Geopolitical developments can continue adding volatility for better or worse.  If there's one take away, it's simply that volatility risks are much more pronounced this week compared to the past 2 weeks.