Wednesday's mortgage rates were the highest in roughly a month and very close to the highest levels in 2 months.  This followed stronger economic data on that same morning. Rates moved back down yesterday after separate econ data told a different story. Now on Friday, it's a mixed bag. The underlying bond market was slightly weaker to start the day, and that meant rates started out modestly higher. But the last economic data of the week showed lower-than-expected consumer sentiment. Bonds improved as a result, but not enough for the average lender to go to the trouble of adjusting their mortgage rate offerings. The implication is that Monday's rates would be back in line with yesterday's if the bond market were to hold steady over the weekend. Keep in mind, that's never a guarantee. The point of sharing the info is simply to relay the fact that rates could endure a bit of bond market weakness over the weekend without being any higher than they are today. 

As of yesterday afternoon, mortgage rates were right in line with the highest levels in more than a month. The upward momentum was largely a product of 2 specific days: the October 29th Fed announcement and yesterday's duo of economic reports that suggested less cause for concern over the labor market and strength of the services sector. Now today, we have different economic data telling a different story.  Were it not for the government shutdown, the market may have never placed nearly as much emphasis on today's data. In fact, today is the first time that many market participants have even heard of one of the reports (a synthetic jobs report by Revelio). Revelio's data suggested a decline in payrolls in October.  Combined with separate data that showed a surge in job cuts, there was a clearly negative message for the labor market. Bad economic news helps bonds which, in turn, is good for rates. All told, today's move completely erased yesterday's damage. The average mortgage lender made it almost all the way back down to last Friday's levels. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

A common recent refrain is that the bond market (which dictates interest rates) is having to make do without many of the most important regularly-scheduled economic reports due to the government shutdown. While this means rates must "fly blind" on many of the days that would normally coincide with these government economic reports, there are other days that still play host to top-tier non-government data. Today boasted not one--but two such reports. Unfortunately for rates, both reports were unfriendly. Rates tend to benefit from economic weakness. As such, when reports are stronger than expected, it pushes rates higher, all else equal. Today's reports were both stronger. ADP's monthly employment tally came in at 42k versus a median forecast of 25k. This isn't an especially large margin of victory, but it was enough to cause weakness in bonds earlier this morning.  Less than 2 hours later, the most widely-followed report on the health of the services sector also showed stronger-than-expected results. Bonds continued to weaken after that, ultimately forcing lenders to raise rates back to levels just under those seen in late September.   If things had been even a little bit worse, we'd be at the highest rates in just over 2 months.  As it stands, we're close enough. MND's 30yr fixed index rose to 6.37% today.  September 25th's level was 6.39, and that's as high as we've been since September 4th. In the bigger picture, rates are still much closer to 2025's lows as opposed to the highs, but there's been a palpable shift since the Fed meeting at the end of October. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was technically 0.01% higher than yesterday, but that's the smallest possible detected move.  It's just as fair to say rates held steady today. While it's always nice to avoid a more serious rate spike on any given day, by holding flat, rates are remaining in line with their highest levels in just over 3 weeks.  The bonds that underlie mortgage rates improved slightly throughout the day, but not enough for most mortgage lenders to go to the trouble of adjusting their published rates. The implication is that rates have a bit of an advantage heading into tomorrow. Specifically, if bonds were to hold perfectly steady between now and the time that lenders publish their initial rates, the average lender would likely be slightly lower. How likely is it that bonds hold steady? There's never any way to know for sure. What we do know is that an important economic report will be released right around the time that most lenders are setting rates. As such, the outcome of that report stands a good chance of setting the tone.  The report in question is the ISM Services index and it will be released at 10am ET.

Up until last week's Fed announcement, the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was at the lowest levels in more than a year (in many cases, matching the same lows seen on September 16th--the day before the previous Fed announcement). Although these past 2 post-Fed episodes have resulted in somewhat volatile bounces, rates are still far closer to long-term lows than they are to the summertime highs. In terms of MND's 30yr fixed index, we're currently at 6.34% versus last week's low of 6.13%.  Contrast that to rates just under 7% in June and 7.25% earlier this year.