Top-tier 30-year fixed rates are back above 6.5% today for the first time in more than a month for the average lender. Many lenders raised rates during the course of the day as well.  Those who didn't will likely have to raise rates tomorrow unless the underlying bond market makes a significant recovery overnight. Rates are driven by bonds and bonds are starting the week at higher yields in response to war-related developments. In general, escalation in the Iran war pushes bond yields higher by implying higher inflation via higher oil prices. Additionally, funding the war implies the need for more Treasury supply in the future as the U.S. issues debt to pay for the war. Higher supply leads to lower prices for bonds, and lower prices mean higher rates. Today's top-tier rate of 6.56% is the highest since March 27th, when it was 6.62% and the third highest since August, 2025. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Low volatility was the most obvious theme for mortgage rates last week. From April 14th through last Friday, the range for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained in an ultra-narrow range of 6.29-6.33%. That trend persisted on Monday of this week, but things changed abruptly after that. Tuesday and Wednesday saw moderately big increases that took the average all the way up to 6.50%.  The past two days have been much calmer by comparison, even if rates remain elevated versus last week.  Today's resilience is most easily attributed to a slew of headlines suggesting that peace negotiations are at least being attempted by The U.S. and Iran. Additional progress toward a resolution (or lack thereof) is the most likely source of volatility for rates next week, but markets have also shown some willingness to react to big-ticket economic data (such as next Friday's jobs report). [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Mortgage rates spiked on Wednesday (yesterday) after reports suggested a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As has been the case for most of the past 2 months, interest rate movement was clearly correlated with oil prices. Now today, both are moving back in the other direction though not for reasons that are as obvious as yesterday's. The rally began just after 2am ET with both oil prices and bond yields dropping in concert. Lower bond yields mean lower rates, all else equal. After hitting 6.50% for top-tier 30yr fixed rates, the average lender is back down to 6.45--roughly where they were yesterday morning before a round of mid-day increases in the afternoon. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Mortgage rates jumped higher today at the fastest pace in weeks to the highest levels since March 30th. There were two key motivations for the increase, but one accounted for a vast majority of the damage. News came out overnight that spoke to the possibility of a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets took this seriously because it involved conversations with oil executives to assess the the impact of a prolonged blockade on domestic energy markets and fuel prices. Bond yields (which correlate with rates) and oil prices lurched higher again this morning after a White House official reiterated/corroborated the overnight news. The supporting actor in today's rate drama was the Fed announcement. While the Fed didn't hike rates, 3 voters voiced their opposition to the wording of the Fed's statement because it tacitly implies the Fed is more inclined to cut rates vs hike them in the near future. Those 3 voters would prefer to indicate that rates could go either way depending on inflation and the economy. The market took this as a minor negative indication for rates. Measuring in terms of 10-year Treasury yields, more than 80% of today's rate spike was in place before the Fed announcement came out. The average mortgage lender is back to 6.50% for top tier 30-year fixed scenarios, up from 6.38% yesterday. Most lenders made mid-day adjustments to even higher rates as the underlying bond market continued to suffer into the afternoon. 

Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today for the average lender, but not for any exciting reasons. Rather, the change has more to do with timing of the underlying market movement. While it's true that mortgage rates are directly influenced by the bond market, mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day. From there, they will occasionally make adjustments if the bond market experiences enough volatility. The catch is that lenders are less likely to adjust rates the later it is in the afternoon and if the bond market has been changing steadily/gradually. With all that in mind, yesterday saw a steady, gradual decline in the bond market that persisted into the late afternoon. As such, most lenders didn't go to the trouble of adjusting rates yesterday. In other words, the average lender was already planning on raising rates a bit this morning even if the bond market started the day flat. But bonds lost even more ground this morning (before lenders decided on rates for the day). Bottom line, lenders were tasked with adjusting for 2 days of modest weakness all at once. The result is a move that is bigger than the average recent day, but not because the underlying market movement was bigger or more volatile than average. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]