It's getting pretty tough to weave an interesting narrative on mortgage rates over the past 3 weeks. During that time, they just haven't changed that much for the average lender. Today was just another day in that regard. Bonds (which dictate day to day movement in rates) were slightly weaker than yesterday. This implies slightly higher mortgage rates and, indeed, today was no exception. But the important points are as follows: bond market movement has been relatively small on any given day winning and losing days have been in relatively equal supply Bottom line: today's losses leave the average rate easily inside the narrow prevailing range.

Mortgage rates technically ticked a hair lower today, but it's more accurate to view them as being broadly sideways. Some lenders issued improvements yesterday afternoon.  Those lenders were closer to unchanged this morning.   As of this afternoon, several lenders have already issued slight rate increases due to weakness in the bond market.   Bonds dictate rates. Today, bonds took cues from two main events in the afternoon.  The first was a scheduled auction of 10yr Treasuries. Auction demand was slightly weaker than expected. This pushes Treasury yields higher and Treasury yields correlate with mortgage rates.  An hour later, the Fed released the minutes from the last Fed meeting 3 weeks ago. The minutes painted a slightly less rate-friendly picture than was in place at the time. This created a bit of extra weakness in the bond market, but only by a barely detectable amount. All told, the bonds that specifically pertain to mortgage rates were right at the same levels seen during the same time frame yesterday afternoon.  In general, that will equate to mortgage rates being at the same levels as well.

Mortgage rates have been in a very narrow range for nearly 3 weeks with the last major move seen on September 17th and 18th following the Fed rate cut. Paradoxically but not surprisingly, rates actually moved higher after the Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate. Contrary to popular belief, Fed comments and policy changes are not the biggest consideration for rates. That honor goes to big ticket economic data like the jobs report.  Case in point, the rate drop in early September after the jobs report was bigger than the jump in rates following the Fed. Moreover, the post-Fed jump was driven mainly by upbeat economic data the following morning. With the government in shutdown mode, we haven't had the same sort of heavy-hitting econ data--a fact that largely contributes to the recently narrow range. There was some non-government data today from the NY Fed that showed a weaker view of the jobs market among consumers, thus helping rates hold in line with yesterday's levels. Before that data, rates were set to open the day slightly higher.

Mortgage rates began the week right in line with their highest levels of the past 30 days.  This sounds a bit more dramatic than it is because the past 2.5 weeks have been very narrow and today's rates are merely at the upper edge of that range (i.e. not much different than the recent lows). There were no meaningful economic reports driving volatility in the underlying bond market (bonds dictate rates), but overseas developments caused broad bond market weakness overnight.  Weaker bonds = higher rates, all else equal. More extreme rate movement remains on hold until the government shutdown ends, thus allowing the publication of the big-ticket economic reports that have the biggest impacts on rates.

Mortgage rates moved just a bit lower today. Relative to any other day in the past 2 weeks, it was unremarkable.  But because the range has been so narrow over that time, and because rates were already at the lower boundary of that range yesterday, it technically resulted in the lowest average rate since Fed Day on September 17th. The underlying bond market was slightly weaker. This would typically result in mortgage rates moving higher. The catch is the timing of the weakness (and yesterday's strength).  Specifically, bonds improved yesterday afternoon but not enough for the average lender to change its rates for the day. Today's bond market is weaker compared to yesterday afternoon's levels, but stronger than yesterday morning's levels (when a majority of mortgage lenders published rates).  In other words, today's drop in rates had everything to do with yesterday afternoon's bond market gains.  All that needed to happen this morning was for bonds not to lose too much of that ground.