Heading into today's Fed announcement, futures markets indicated roughly a 1 in 3 chance that the Fed would hike rates. They did not. This seems like it should have been good news for rates, but there's a catch. Rates exist on a spectrum defined by "duration." Specifically, there are different rates for different lengths of loans. The Fed Funds Rate is relevant to loans of the shortest duration (mostly overnight lending between the largest financial institutions). Mortgage rates, meanwhile, are more closely linked to longer term loans--bonds with durations that average 5-7 years.  When a Fed decision or the Fed outlook is actively being traded, we often see big divergences between the shortest-term rates and the longest. Today's reaction is a prime example. 2-year Treasuries (short enough to get some benefit from the Fed holding rates steady) fell noticeably. But longer term rates launched higher.  Why? Warsh basically told the market that he doesn't need to hike if the market is going to do it for him. And because short-term bonds have to stay more closely linked to the Fed Funds Rate, it's longer-term bonds that can actually accommodate Warsh's request.  Mortgages are long enough to see a bit of damage from this trading dynamic, thus the moderate increase in today's average 30yr fixed rates. It's also worth mentioning that the day got off to a challenging start for rates due to overnight increases in oil prices (which have been closely linked to rate movement during the Iran war). 

After bottoming out around 6.5% in late June, mortgage rates moved steadily higher this month, ultimately hitting 6.85% last Thursday--the highest level in over a year. There was a modest recovery on Friday with a fair amount of intraday changes from the average mortgage lender.  Because rates are based on bonds, it's worth noting that bonds are in better shape today compared to Friday's latest levels. But if we use Friday's stronger mid-day levels as a baseline, bonds are just barely stronger. As such, it's no surprise to see mortgage rates just barely lower. The key consideration for the bond market over the weekend was the announcement of a pause in the fighting in Iran. This helped oil prices move lower, thus lowering inflation implications and bond yields. This is the financial market's way of saying interest rates can also come down.  The caveat is of course that a resurgence of fighting in Iran could cause oil and inflation expectations to rise again, thus putting renewed pressure on rates. In addition, Wednesday's Fed announcement is also a potential source of volatility. The Fed is not expected to hike or cut, but the market is less convicted than normal about the Fed's likely course of action. That means the result will be somewhat surprising to a larger share of the market than normal, and that's a recipe for volatility.

If you're just tuning in, mortgage rates had a rough day yesterday on top of a rough week overall. The result was the highest 30yr fixed rate in over a year with our index moving up to 6.85%. As has been and continues to be the case, rate momentum has been strongly correlated with oil/gas price momentum. With that in mind, it's no surprise to see rates moving lower on a day where oil prices recovered from their recent highs. That's the good news, and it brings the rate index down 0.04% to 6.81%.  The not-so-good news is that 6.81% is still the highest in more than a year apart from yesterday. But longest journeys and single steps... Oil price volatility will remain in focus until the war is definitively over (and more importantly, until oil price volatility actually dies down with prices trending significantly lower). In addition, next week's Fed announcement brings a good amount of surprise potential for the rate market. The Fed is not likely to hike rates, but confirming that will be worth something to the market.

Mortgage moved higher today, and while the jump was no larger than the one seen on Monday, both were 'above average' and both took rates in the wrong direction. In addition, the steady weakness throughout the month of July finally resulted in yesterday's rates match the highest level in nearly a year.  In other words, it wouldn't have taken much of a jump for today's rates to be the highest in more than a year.  Our daily 30yr fixed rate index rose from 6.77% yesterday to 6.85% today--the highest since June 23rd, 2025. But here's the silver lining: July 2025 through February 2026 was unequivocally the best run we've had in the mortgage world since rates began their rapid ascent in 2022. The time frame was marked by steady declines and low volatility relative to previous few years.  Even after the start of the Iran war, outright rate levels remained in the lower half of the range going back to late 2022. To be very fair, they're still in the lower half of that range.  Bottom line: being "the highest in more than a year" says more about the past year than it does about the actual rate level. It is not ideal, but also not the end of the world. And if peace finds a way to break out again, June serves as a proof of concept that rates can respond favorably.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

We have bad news and slightly less bad news. Starting with the latter, today's mortgage rates are only marginally higher than they were yesterday with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate up 0.02%. The bad news is that this takes our rate index to 6.77%--the highest level since July 28th, 2025.  Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and bonds remain under pressure from a renewed surge in fuel prices. Specifically, higher fuel prices and additional uncertainty about the Iran war increase inflation expectations, and it's inflation that is the actual thorn in the bond market's side. Last week's inflation reports definitely offered some solace, but the bond market has progressively come to terms with the fact that last week's data was for the month of June (the best month for lower fuel prices since the start of the Iran war). July has been the polar opposite with gas futures quickly jumping back up to their highest levels of the year as of this morning. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]