It was a very slow and steady week for mortgage rates. On all 5 days, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate moved by 0.02% or less.  This is a small enough change that the average borrower wouldn't see any detectable difference in a loan quote from one day to the next. But due to most of the changes being toward lower rates, Thursday and Friday would be modestly but measurably better than the first 3 days of the week. This is an ideal scenario for prospective borrower and mortgage professionals. One of the most frustrating and challenging realities of this industry is the extent to which rates can change over short periods of time. So not only did we enjoy the lowest rates in more than 10 months, but volatility was essentially non-existent to boot! It's not a huge surprise to see this sort of stability given that there were no big-ticket risks on the event calendar this week. That changes in a major way in the week ahead. Right from the outset on Tuesday (Monday is a Federal holiday), there are relevant economic reports on all 4 days. Friday's jobs report is especially important considering it was the last jobs report that was primarily responsible for the recent rally to 10-month lows. Bottom line: to whatever extent it was unlikely that the outgoing week would see much volatility, the forthcoming week is likely to be just the opposite, for better or worse. 

There is no singular, official primary source for mortgage rate levels. The going rate is whatever can be locked/closed at any given lender. As such, we rely on surveys and data aggregations in order to routinely monitor the probable going rate.  The longest-standing weekly survey from Freddie Mac was updated today and, while it showed a decline to the lowest levels since October 2024 (something we agree with), it is too slow-moving to reflect the current reality. Freddie's survey showed 6.56% today, and this would be based on the average of the 5 days from last Thursday through yesterday.  MND tracks daily rates based on objective rate sheet data from multiple lenders. We had the average top tier rate at 6.62% last Thursday, but it has fallen since then. To be precise, it fell quickly on Friday after Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. From there, we've been in a narrow range this week, but each of the past 3 days have seen a modest tick lower. The net effect is an index level of 6.50% today--the lowest we've seen since October 3rd, even if only a hair lower than yesterday. It's important to understand what 6.50% means in the context of our index.  To paraphrase our methodology, this is a best-case-scenario rate that assumes a 780+ credit score and 25% down payment on an owner-occupied purchase loan within the conforming loan limit. 6.50% would be a competitive average. Some lenders will be higher and lower--especially if buydown points come into play.

It continues to be the case that day-to-day changes in average mortgage rates are very small. Today was no exception in that regard. Nonetheless, today represents a technical "record low" for 2025 with average rates edging just slightly lower than those seen on August 22nd and 26th. Our index (which tracks top tier, conventional 30yr fixed rates for ideal scenarios) is now 6.51%, the lowest it's been since October 3rd 2024 when it was 6.26%. Virtually all of the recent improvement in rates followed the August 1st jobs report. Everything since August 4th has transpired in a relatively narrow range.  There was no new development that accounted for today's improvement--just a random drift that happened to work out in our favor.

Mortgage rates tend to move at least a little every day although they haven't been moving too much in the bigger picture recently. The only truly memorable move int he past few months occurred after the August 1st jobs report. It resulted in a 2-day drop from 6.75% to 6.57%.  The next closest contender was last Friday's reaction to Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech which took the index from 6.62 to 6.52.  So far this week, we've been holding very close to those levels.  Yesterday saw a modest bump and today pushed rates back down to Friday's levels. The end. This week's movements could be classified as incidental, random drift.  Such a trend is a logical interlude separating the news and events that actually matter to the big picture rate trend. Barring a major, unexpected development, the next high-consequence event is the jobs report due out next Friday. It would be no surprise to see a fairly drifty trend prevail until then.

After last week's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell, rates fell to their lowest levels since October 3rd, 2024, narrowly surpassing the recent long-term low seen on August 13th. Powell tacitly suggested a stronger possibility of a September Fed rate cut due to growing concerns about the labor market. Now today, the market corrected mildly back in the other direction.  The average lender's conventional 30yr fixed rates moved back up ever-so-slightly (roughly 0.02%), but remain essentially in line with 10-month lows.  It always bears repeating that mortgage rates have much more in common with Fed rate EXPECTATIONS in the marketplace than with the Fed Funds Rate itself. Specifically, if expectations for rate cuts are increasing, mortgage rates tend to fall at the same time. The catch is that by the time the Fed ultimately holds its scheduled meeting and cuts rates, the market has long since priced that likelihood into prevailing levels. Thus, the actual Fed rate cut does little or nothing else to influence rates and the next wave of momentum takes cues from subsequent economic reports and developments.  Bottom line: the Fed Funds Rate is a battleship in a river whereas mortgage rates are far more nimble.