Mortgage rates finally moved in a slightly more noticeable direction today, but the change was still inconsequential in the bigger picture. The average 30yr fixed rate in our index edged up a mere 2 hundredths of a percent from 6.55% to 6.57%, exactly matching the levels seen on August 6th. This leaves rates in the same low range they’ve occupied all week. This week’s stability follows last Friday’s jobs report, which pushed bond yields—and by extension, rates—sharply lower. Since then, daily market movements have been too small to force meaningful lender changes. Even with today’s tiny bump, top tier scenarios remain in the mid-6% range. Next week brings far greater potential for movement. Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index will provide a critical update on inflation and may shed more light on how recent tariff changes are impacting prices. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak, offering an opportunity to gauge whether last week’s weaker jobs data has shifted their willingness to cut rates. Between these two factors, the calm we’ve seen this week could give way to a much more volatile landscape in the days ahead.

Mortgage rates have barely budged after Monday with the day-over-day change failing to exceed 0.02% on any given day. But today's budging happened to bring the average 30yr fixed rate to another 10-month low.  Lenders are in the mid 6% range for top tier scenarios. Economic data is one of the common influences for the bonds that underly rate movement. Today's only somewhat significant report was the weekly jobless claims data.  It would have needed to fall very far from forecasts in order to have a big impact. While it was higher than expected, the "miss" was too small to matter. Today's improvement has more to do with yesterday's late day gains in the bond market. Today's trading has erased those gains, but the market hasn't moved enough for most lenders to go to the trouble of changing their rates. The implication is that tomorrow morning's rates would be just a hair higher if the bond market held perfectly steady overnight.

Although there were flashes of potential volatility in the underlying bond market at times today, mortgage rates made it through unscathed.  In other words, the volatility wasn't sufficient to force the average lender to make mid-day changes to the rates they decided to offer this morning. Whereas yesterday saw an inconsequentially small increase of 0.01% to the average conventional 30yr fixed rate, today saw just the opposite.  That means our rate index once again matches its lowest level since October 4th, 2024.  While this is undoubtedly a victory, rates would need to fall quite a bit more in order to hit the next milestone at the levels just one month earlier in early September (6.11% back then versus 6.57% today). An improvement like that would require multiple downbeat economic reports over the course of several weeks as well as lower-than-expected inflation readings.  Without that sort of data, there's a risk that rates aren't able to make much additional progress from here.

Yesterday saw the average 30yr fixed rate fall back in line with levels from early October, 2024. This happened for two reasons. The broader, underlying reason is that rates have been in a fairly narrow, stable range and that range was already relatively closer to 10 month lows than 10 month highs. The more specific reason is quite clearly the market's reaction to last week's jobs report.  In other words, the prevailing range was the fuel and the jobs report was the match.  Little has changed so far in the present week as far as the underlying bond market is concerned. Mortgage rates happened to fall yesterday mostly because they weren't able to fully adjust to bond market developments on Friday.  To a lesser degree, modest, additional improvement in the bond market left no doubt that lenders could drop rates just a bit more. Now today, bonds are even more 'unchanged' than yesterday.  Given that yesterday's change was also modest, mortgage lenders didn't have any catching up to do.  Thus, it's no surprise to see the average lender effectively right in line with yesterday's latest levels. Apart from yesterday (which is technically 0.01% higher), today's rates are also the lowest in 10 months. 

Mortgage rates are driven by movement in the bond market and bonds take cues from economic data, among other things. The monthly jobs report is routinely the most closely watched economic report as far as bonds are concerned and Friday's caused a significant amount of bond buying (which, in turn, pushes rates down). Friday's reaction was so big that the average mortgage lender didn't fully adjust their rate offerings to match the market movement. This is typical of very large swings in bonds. It also meant that we merely needed today's bond market levels to hold steady in order for rates to continue lower and that's exactly what happened. In fact, bonds ultimately improved just a hair, but even before that, mortgage lenders were out with their lowest rates since early October. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]